中國錄得資本流入 緩解各方擔憂

China economy fears ease after capital inflows boost

英國《金融時報》 吳佳柏 上海報道

Capital flowed into China last month for the first time since an unexpected currency devaluation in August shook investor confidence in the economy, easing fears over financial stability following an unprecedented bout of outflows.

中國上月錄得自8月人民幣意外貶值、動搖投資者對中國經濟信心以來首次資本淨流入，緩解了人們對於一波空前的資本外流之後中國金融穩定的擔憂。

Capital has exited China at a record pace this year as an economic slowdown pushed Chinese gross domestic product growth to its slowest pace in six years. Outflows accelerated following the central bank’s unexpected move in August to let the renminbi weaken and the main stock index fell more than

隨著經濟放緩把中國國內生產總值(GDP)增長壓低至六年最低位，今年中國遭遇創紀錄速度的資本外流。中國央行在8月采取讓人民幣走低的意外舉動、且主要股指自6月下旬起下滑逾40%後，資本外流有所提速。

40 per cent beginning in late June.

外流趨勢在10月扭轉。據上周六公布的央行數據，中國央行和中國其它金融機構當月淨買入129億元人民幣的外彙，結束連續四個月的淨賣出。淨外彙買入被視為資本流入的一個標誌，而淨外彙賣出被視為資本外流。10月錄得淨買入之前，中國在9月錄得7610億元人民幣的創紀錄淨外彙賣出。

The outflow trend reversed in October as the central bank and other Chinese financial institutions bought a net Rmb12.9bn in foreign exchange, breaking a four-month streak of net sales, according to data from the central bank released on Saturday. Net forex purchases are considered a sign of capital inflow, while sales indicate outflows. October’s purchases followed record-high net sales of Rmb761bn in September.

本月早些時候另有數據表明，中國的官方外彙儲備（其中僅包括央行所持儲備）在10月份增加了114億美元，結束了連續五個月的下降趨勢。截至上月底，中國的外彙儲備達到3.53萬億美元，低於2014年6月3.99萬億美元的峰值。

Separate data earlier this month showed that China’s official foreign exchange reserves, which only include holdings by the central bank, rose by $11.4bn in October, breaking five straight months of decline. Total reserves stood at $3.53tn at the end of last month, down from a peak of $3.99tn in June 2014.

“對於（人民幣）貶值的擔憂近來已經緩解了很多。人民幣在8月11日意外貶值後，我們曾預測人民幣到今年底的貶值幅度將不到5%，”麥格理證券(Macquarie Securities)中國經濟學家胡偉俊(Larry Hu)寫道。

“The fear of [renminbi] devaluation has been alleviated a lot recently. When the renminbi surprisingly depreciated on August 11, we predicted that the renminbi would depreciate less than 5 per cent by year-end,” wrote Larry Hu, China economist at Macquarie Securities.

“與三個月前相比，那個預測的爭議性已經小了很多。”

“That call has become much less controversial recently compared with three months ago.”

在8月份采取行動讓人民幣有走低空間後，中國人民銀行(PBoC)動用其外彙儲備，阻止人民幣以過於劇烈的幅度貶值。在中國央行僅在8月就支出高達2000億美元支撐本幣後，分析師們擔心，如果中國央行按照這樣的速度繼續幹預，中國的外彙儲備可能會很快耗盡。

After its move in August to allow the renminbi room to weaken, the People’s Bank of China drew on its foreign exchange reserves to prevent the currency from weakening too sharply. After the PBoC spent as much as $200bn in August alone to support the currency, analysts worried that China’s forex reserves could be quickly exhausted if the central bank continued intervention at that pace.

最新數據似乎表明，市場對人民幣的情緒（在中國央行8月采取行動後曾大幅轉向看跌）已有所好轉。

The latest data suggest that market sentiment toward the renminbi, which turned sharply bearish after the August move, has improved.

分析師們表示，央行的市場幹預已說服投資者相信，中國政府不會允許人民幣大幅下跌。央行還對向海外轉移資金重新實施了一些限製，以遏製外流。

Analysts say the PBoC’s market intervention persuaded investors that the government would not permit a large fall in the currency. The central bank also reimposed some restrictions on transferring funds abroad to curb outflows.

中國的資本流動

Adding to improved sentiment, China’s stock market has returned to bull market territory from its lows of late August, and the bond market is also rising on the back of successive interest rate cuts by the PBoC.

在市場對人民幣情緒好轉的同時，中國股市已從8月下旬的低點反彈至牛市區間，債券市場也在中國央行一再降息的支撐下出現漲勢。

The International Monetary Fund staff recommended on Friday that the renminbi be added to join the elite basket of currencies used to value the fund’s own de facto currency, known as Special Drawing Rights.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)工作人員上周五建議，人民幣應當被納入決定特別提款權（SDR，該組織實際上的貨幣）估值的主要貨幣籃子。

“The continued stabilisation of the Chinese economy and the renminbi’s likely inclusion in the IMF’s SDR basket will help support a stable exchange rate and limit capital outflows through the rest of 2015,” wrote Shen Jianguang, China economist at Mizuho Securities.

“中國經濟繼續企穩以及人民幣很可能被納入IMF的特別提款權籃子，將在2015年剩餘時間幫助穩定彙率，限製資本外流，”瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)中國經濟學家沈建光寫道。

譯者/和風