Asia’s “trade recession” appears to have worsened in August — with India, China, South Korea and Indonesia all posting sharp declines — as a vicious circle of weakening currencies and faltering demand hits exports across the region, analysts said.

Asia, led by China, has long been the world’s most dynamic trading region. But exports this year have posted their worst performance since the 2008-09 financial crisis, falling 7.7 per cent in July to register a ninth consecutive month of year on year falls in US dollar terms, according to data compiled by Capital Economics, a research company.

Figures for August released so far show a deepening of this trend. India announced this week a 20.6 per cent fall in exports in August from a year earlier, while South Korea suffered a 14.9 per cent slide, Indonesia a 12.3 per cent deterioration and China a decline of 6.1 per cent.

In each of these countries, apart from India, imports fell by a bigger margin than exports in August.

The deepening trade recession suggests a further leg down in a vicious circle of cause and effect that is afflicting emerging markets the world over, not just in Asia. Weakening currencies are failing to boost exports but nevertheless driving down demand for imports, thus reducing aggregate demand and worsening disinflationary trends.

An FT study of 107 emerging market countries showed that a weaker currency did not lead to any rise in export volumes but did depress import volumes by an average of 0.5 per cent for every 1 per cent a currency depreciated against the US dollar.

“We had been expecting a smooth transition in global growth drivers away from the slowing Chinese economy and towards the US household sector over 2015-16,” wrote Glenn Maguire, chief economist for South Asia, Asean and Pacific for ANZ Research. “Alas, it was not to be.”

He said the region’s “deep trade recession” was prompting the research group to make significant downward revisions to its 2015-17 GDP growth forecasts.

Mr Maguire said several factors were behind the region’s weak trade performance, including “structurally lower potential growth rates among major economies, unfavourable demographic trends and under-investment in capacity”.

In addition to these factors, Mr Maguire said, a fundamental weakening in the trade multiplier was also in play. “This is a remarkable out-turn relative to Asia’s strong historical trade performance,” he added.

Underlining this predicament is the fact that although the values of all Asian currencies (apart from the Hong Kong dollar) have fallen against the US dollar since the start of August — which should boost exports as they become cheaper in dollar terms — the performance of exports has continued to worsen.

Analysts advance several explanations for this phenomenon.

One has it that the quantitative easing activities in the US, Europe and Japan have served to boost asset values much more than consumer demand, an analysis that is reinforced by the anaemic wage growth of the US middle class.

Another explanation maintains that the import-intensity of Chinese exports has declined as bigger sections of the Chinese global supply chain relocate to China.

A third rationale is that a collapse in consumer demand in key commodity-producing countries such as Brazil and Russia has triggered a knock-on effect throughout emerging markets.

Corroborating these dynamics is evidence that consumer spending continues to weaken throughout emerging markets. In the second quarter, according to data compiled by Capital Economics, consumer spending grew just 1.2 per cent year on year, its lowest level since the aftermath of the financial crisis.

Industrial production growth also remains weak, with Capital Economics’ aggregate measure for all emerging markets expanding by just 2.2 per cent year on year in the three months to July — again, the slowest pace since September 2009.

中文：

　　分析師表示，8月，亞洲的“貿易衰退”似乎進一步加劇，印度、中國、韓國和印尼的貿易額均大幅下降，彙率疲弱和需求低迷的惡性循環正在衝擊整個亞洲地區的出口。

　　以中國為首的亞洲長期以來是全球最具活力的貿易區域。但研究公司凱投宏觀(CapitalEconomics)的數據顯示，今年以來，該地區出口錄得2008年至2009年金融危機以來最差表現，按美元計算，7月出口額同比下降7.7%，為連續第9個月同比下降。

　　目前已發布的8月數據顯示，這種趨勢在繼續深化。印度本周宣布，8月出口同比下降20.6%，同時韓國出口下降14.9%，印尼下降12.3%，而中國下降6.1%。

　　除了印度以外，上述所有國家的進口降幅均超過出口降幅。

　　貿易衰退加劇表明，正在困擾全球（而非僅僅是亞洲）新興市場的惡性因果循環又進一步惡化。彙率疲弱未能推動出口，卻壓低了進口需求，從而導致總需求下降，加劇通縮趨勢。

　　英國《金融時報》對107個新興市場國家的研究表明，貨幣貶值沒有導致出口額上升，卻削弱了進口額——平均而言，這些國家的貨幣兌美元每貶值1%，進口就會減少0.5%。

　　澳新銀行研究部(ANZResearch)負責南亞、東盟和太平洋地區的首席經濟學家馬博文(GlennMaguire)寫道：“我們此前預期，全球增長引擎的角色將在2015年至2016年間由持續放緩的中國經濟平穩過渡到美國家庭部門，可惜情況並非如此。”

　　他說，由於亞洲地區出現“深度貿易衰退”，該研究部大幅下調了該地區2015年至2017年的GDP增長預期。

　　馬博文表示，該地區貿易表現疲弱背後有多重因素，包括“主要經濟體的潛在增長率出現結構性下降、不利的人口趨勢以及產能投資不足”。

　　馬博文說，除了這些因素以外，貿易乘數的根本性疲弱也有影響。他補充稱：“相對於亞洲強勁的曆史貿易表現，這是一個不同尋常的結果。”

　　突顯這種困境的是，盡管自8月初以來，亞洲地區所有貨幣兌美元幾乎全線貶值（港幣除外）——這本應提升出口，原因是按美元計算，商品價格變得便宜——但出口表現繼續惡化。

　　分析師們對這種現象提出了數種解釋。

　　一種觀點是，美國、歐洲和日本的量化寬鬆活動將資產價值推高至遠超過消費者需求的地步，美國中產階級薪資增長疲弱也支持這種分析。

　　另一種解釋認為，隨著中國的全球供應鏈的更大部分回流中國，中國出口產品中的進口強度下降。

　　第三種解釋是，巴西、俄羅斯等主要大宗商品生產國的消費者需求大幅下降，在整個新興市場產生了連鎖效應。

　　有證據表明，整個新興市場的消費者支出繼續表現疲弱，這證實了上述解釋。凱投宏觀的數據顯示，在今年第二季度，消費者支出同比僅增長了1.2%，為金融危機之後最低的水平。

　　工業產值增長也依然疲弱。5-7月，凱投宏觀衡量所有新興市場的工業產值指標同比僅增長2.2%，同樣是自2009年9月以來的最低水平。