光棍節不能證明中國經濟轉型成功

China’s consumers cannot save the day

英國《金融時報》 拉斐爾˙哈爾平 報道

Can the Chinese consumer successfully step up to offset weaknesses elsewhere in the economy?

中國消費者能不能成功地加把勁，彌補中國經濟其它部門的疲弱？

Those backing this thesis point to two recent pieces of data.

支持這個命題的人士提到最近的兩個數據。

Despite China’s recent turmoil, retail sales growth accelerated in October, surpassing growth in fixed-asset investment for the first time since the year 2000.

盡管中國近來形勢不好，但10月零售銷售增長加速，自2000年以來首次超過了固定資產投資的增長。

Meanwhile, China’s Singles Day generated a record $14.3bn in sales for Alibaba.

與此同時，中國的“光棍節”為阿裏巴巴(Alibaba)產生了創紀錄的143億美元銷售額。

There are several problems with the argument, however.

然而，這個主張有幾個問題。

First, these are not accurate indicators of consumer spending.

首先，這些都不是衡量消費者支出的準確指標。

The results of one day’s sales promotion that encourages consumers to front-load purchases is not a serious measure of the health of the entire retail sector, particularly given the fact that online transactions in China only account for around 10 per cent of total retail sales.

一天的促銷活動鼓勵消費者提前購買，並不是整個零售行業健康狀況的嚴肅衡量指標，尤其是鑒於在線交易僅占中國社會消費品零售總額的10%左右。

Official retail sales data, meanwhile, are also an unorthodox measure for consumer spending, given that they include government purchases.

與此同時，中國的官方零售銷售數據對於消費者支出也是一個非正統的衡量指標，因為它們包括政府采購。

There are arguably more accurate indicators of consumer spending available, and these are pointing to slower rather than faster growth in the consumer sector.

其它有一些消費者支出指標可以說更準確，而它們都指向消費者部門更慢（而不是更快）的增長。

Every month FT Confidential Research surveys 1,000 Chinese consumers. In October, respondents were at their most negative about discretionary spending since the survey began in July 2011.

Similarly, China UnionPay uses data it collects from its bank cards to generate proprietary measures of consumer spending. September’s reading for its restaurant and catering spending index was the lowest since April 2011. October’s data also remained below trend.

每個月，英國《金融時報》旗下研究服務部門“投資參考”(FT Confidential Research)都會調查1000名中國消費者。10月份，受訪者在自由支配支出上的情緒是自2011年7月開始調查以來最負麵的。

Indirect measures of the health of the Chinese consumer are similarly negative.

同樣，中國銀聯(China UnionPay)利用它從銀行卡采集的數據產生專有的消費者支出衡量指標。9月的餐廳和餐飲消費指數跌至2011年4月以來的最低位。10月的數據也仍低於趨勢線。

Year on year growth in value-added output in consumer focused service industries — the wholesale, retail, hotel and catering sectors — fell to 6.7 per cent in the third quarter of this year, down from 10.4 per cent in 2014 and one of the weakest readings on record (see chart).

間接的中國消費者健康指標也同樣不利。

Fixed-asset investment growth in the wholesale, retail, hotel and catering sectors fell to its weakest ever level in the first nine months of this year.

Finally, the tertiary sector may be taking a record share of GDP growth but this is only because of an outsized contribution from the financial services sector, which accounted for 18 per cent of GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2015.

麵向消費者的服務行業（批發、零售、酒店和餐飲業）的增加值同比增速在今年第三季度降至6.7%，低於2014年的10.4%，而且是有記錄以來最疲弱的增速之一（見圖表）。

Without the financial sector, tertiary industries’ share of GDP growth has barely budged this year, pointing to the fact that it has done little to counter the slowdown in the secondary sector.

批發、零售、酒店和餐飲業今年前9個月的固定資產投資增長跌至史上最弱水平。

Consumer not immune from wider slowdown

最後，第三產業在國內生產總值(GDP)增長中的占比也許正達到創紀錄水平，但這僅僅是因為金融服務業作出了超大貢獻：2015年前三個季度占到GDP增長的18%。

None of this suggests that consumer spending is falling in an absolute sense; only that growth is slowing.

Yet slower growth — even from an elevated level — is concerning because it shows that the Chinese consumer is not immune from the slowdown in the wider economy.

若剔除金融業，第三產業在GDP增長中的占比今年幾乎沒有變化，這指向一個事實：第三產業迄今幾乎沒有起到彌補第二產業放緩的作用。

This undermines the idea that consumer spending is somehow independent of the wider slowdown and can act as a countervailing force.

中國消費者並非不受整體經濟放緩的影響

In reality, consumer spending in China is still heavily reliant on the performance of other parts of the economy. Those regions of China that recorded the fastest growth in retail sales in the first three quarters of this year are those where the industrial sector is holding up the best.

這一切並不說明消費者支出的絕對值在下降；隻是增長在放緩。

The concept of a painful, but ultimately successful, rebalancing process for China, where industry and investment slow but consumer spending accelerates, does not, therefore, stack up.

然而，增長放緩（即使是從一個較高的基數）令人擔憂，因為它表明中國消費者並未幸免於整體經濟的放緩。

If these traditional growth drivers continue to slow, the consumer’s response will be a further moderation in spending growth, not an acceleration.

這打擊了這樣一種想法，即中國的消費者支出在某種程度上獨立於整體經濟放緩，並且可以作為一種對抗的力量。

The overwhelming evidence so far is that China’s slowdown is hindering rather than boosting its transition to a consumer economy.

在現實中，中國的消費者支出仍然嚴重依賴於其它經濟部門的表現。今年前三個季度零售銷售增長最快的幾個地區，也正是工業部門表現保持得最好的那幾個地區。

Investors should be aware that for the time being, a healthy consumer sector therefore rests on Beijing’s ability to kick-start old growth drivers, such as heavy industry and construction. If consumer spending growth picks up again — which seems likely — this will follow a stabilisation in the wider economy, not be the cause of it.

The rise of the Chinese consumer remains an appealing investment thesis, but it is less straightforward than many think.

因此，有關中國正在經曆一個痛苦但最終會成功的再平衡過程，其間工業和投資放慢、但消費者支出加速的說法，是站不住腳的。

如果傳統的增長驅動因素繼續放緩，消費者的回應將是消費支出增長的進一步放緩，而非加快。

從迄今的壓倒性證據看，中國經濟放緩正在阻礙（而不是促進）向消費經濟的轉型。

因此，投資者應該明白的是，就眼下而言，消費者部門的健康有賴於北京方麵能不能啟動舊的增長動力，如重工業和建築業。如果消費者支出增長加快了（這看上去很有可能），那將是整體經濟企穩的一個結果，而不是它的原因。

中國消費者的崛起仍是一個誘人的投資主題，但它沒有很多人想象的那麼簡單。

譯者/和風